Glenrothes is just the latest in a string of disappointing by-election results for the Lib Dems. Yesterday's by-election saw the Lib Dems fall to fourth place and, along with the Conservatives, lose our deposit.
Party activists are rightly concerned. The Lib Dems are more used to winning by-elections like Brent East in 2003 where we increased our share of the vote from 10% to nearly 40% and came from third place to win. After all, our candidate in Glenrothes won 12.7% of the vote in 2005, more than four times last night's tally.
Why, the question is asked, were we able to win from 10% in 2003 but found ourselves crushed from 13% in 2008? Is it that we're just not as good at fighting by-elections as we were?
It's a very reasonable question to ask. But I don't think it's the right one. Too many things are outside our control in any by-election: local issues, the strength of the other parties and the national mood for a start.
It just isn't sensible to take different by-elections at different times in different parts of the country and say "we won in X, so we must have failed if we lost in Y." That could be true. It could be that we lost because we ran a bad campaign or missed a trick. But the result alone doesn't show it to be the case.
So a better question to ask, and a better question for both the by-election team and critics to answer is what could we have done differently than would have made a difference?
I know Cowley Street's campaigns department will be doing that and hopefully some lessons will be learnt. What I think I'd like to see is for the Lib Dem critics of our by-election performances to do the same. Don't just complain that Glenrothes wasn't another Brent East - suggest what you think we should be doing differently and better, and why it would convince thousands more people to vote Lib Dem.
I look forward to a constructive debate.
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Cameron turns both ways
16 minutes ago
2 comments:
I'm not going to complain that Glenrothes was different to Brent East. On the other hand, I'm going to say why it was...
In Brent East, we were fortunate enough to have a Local Party who were, and remain, very good at campaigning. We had had councillors in Brent East at various points in the past, and there was still some organisation there.
Paul Daisley, whose death caused the by-election, had been ill for some time, and we had been campaigning on the ground for some time prior to his passing. Add the lengthy delay in calling the by-election, and we were given every opportunity to develop momentum.
Of course, being a London seat, where we have 8,000 members within easy reach (and that's only the London membership), we were able to bring resources to bear much more easily.
At the moment, we seem not to be able to apply an air war if we don't have the human resources to fight a ground war. In Glenrothes, the generally acknowledged view was that this was an SNP/Labour contest, with everything else being background noise. Our members probably responded accordingly.
So, in answer to your question, we could develop a better air war capability, which would keep us in the picture beyond the constituency itself. After all, the media determine how the wider world sees a particular result...
Thanks for the comments Mark. Hopefully you're getting drunk on success, and other more illicit substances, right now.
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